by Muhammad Dika Ardiana, Wailhaq Sahara, Zoel Hutabarat*
ABSTRACT
This study examines the impact of trade protectionism on Indonesia’s macroeconomic vulnerability using quarterly data from 2015Q1–2023Q4. Building upon Miller’s (2025) Shock and Awe framework, we develop a structural model linking trade protectionism, global value chain (GVC) adjustment, financial instability, policy feedback response (PFR), and economic resilience (ER). Employing Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), the study finds that trade protectionism (TP) significantly increases macroeconomic vulnerability (MV) (β = 0.37, p < 0.01) through GVC disruptions (β = 0.46, p < 0.01) and financial instability (β = 0.63, p < 0.001). Fiscal–monetary coordination moderates the FIN → MV relationship (β = 0.28, p < 0.05), while economic resilience (ER) mediates 19% of the total shock impact. The model explains 67.5% of MV variance (R² = 0.675; SRMR = 0.061; NFI = 0.928), indicating robust fit and explanatory power. These results empirically demonstrate that Indonesia’s coordinated policy actions mitigated trade-induced financial fragility during and after the Trump tariff period. The findings contribute to understanding emergingmarket resilience under sustained global protectionism.
